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Should we be concerned about flooding with a high snowpack level?

The BC River Forecast Centre has released its Jan. 1, 2018 data on the current snowpack level, stating that it is already 123% above average.

Based on this information, one might be inclined to start letting out water now to avoid future flooding.

But according to Shaun Reimer, gatekeeper of the Okanagan Lake dam, you can't predict a flood based solely on snowpack conditions.

Reimer has received criticism for his lake water management based on the 2017 floods that transpired.

Last year's historic flooding resulted from several main factors lining up to create the perfect storm, including a fast melt, hot temperatures, as well as early rainfall - and lots of it.

In February, the snowpack level was below average, at 79%.

"In order to stop Okanagan Lake from going over our full pool target, I would’ve had to start releasing water out of Okanagan starting Feb. 17," said Reimer, adding that it would have to be released at 60 cubic metres per second — the maximum release amount.

With a low snowpack reading and drought on his mind, Reimer didn't anticipate the flood.

"As a water manager, I can look back and say that I wouldn’t have done that. And it’s the reality - unless I had a crystal ball," he said about releasing water in February.

<who> Photo Credit: BC River Forecast Centre

But by June, the snow basin index was at 228% of normal.

This winter, he says he'll start making decisions in February, but adds that a snowpack level won't be the only piece of data he looks at.

He'll look at groundwater absorption, early season precipitation, as well as temperatures and whether or not a drought is expected.

"When you think about this snow base index that the Forecast Centre gave is 123%, that’s actually very similar to 2016 — I think it was almost exactly the same and clearly we had no issues with flooding that year.

"So just because we have an above-average snowpack doesn’t really mean that much."

Still, he says that with an above average snowpack, he will tend to keep the lake a little bit lower this year.

"Just like last year, I tended to keep the lake higher — or let the lake stay higher," adding that an average snowpack gives him "the flexibility to capture water if it dries up."

He and other forecasters will be watching for early precipitation - something that crept up in March of last year.

"Last year was really strange - and again going from what seemed to be drought conditions in terms of snowpack, to that March-April very heavy rainfall - normally in the Okanagan we can get some fairly heavy rainfall but we usually don’t get it until May and June."

<who> Photo Credit: KelownaNow

In 2016, the snowpack levels were at 125% above average and flooding was not an issue.

Last year, the snowpack levels were at 79% in February and so levels were kept high in anticipation of a drought. But by June, the snow basin had an index of 228% above normal.

Flooding transpired, based on several factors. The mid-elevation snowpack level melted quickly, with still plenty of high-elevation snow-melt to go.

The conditions were hot and dry, followed by early and heavy rainfall by March.

Based on this Jan. 1, 2018 reading of 123%, Reimer aims to keep the lake level a bit lower until he receives more data in February.



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