Federal polls roundup: All smiles for Tories as lead over Liberals stays strong in 2025

The Conservatives are firmly on track to win the next federal election, according to all recent national polls.

In the four major surveys released so far this year, the Tories are between 17 and 26 points ahead of the Liberals.

The party’s lead, according to those surveys, is as follows:

• Nanos: 22

• Research Co.: 26

• Pallas Data: 17

• Ipsos: 26

According to those same polls, the Liberals are on between 20 and 25 points and the NDP between 15 and 18 points, while the Greens (two to five), Bloc Quebecois (eight to 10) and People’s Party (one to four) trail behind on 10 points and under.

It’s a familiar story for the Conservatives, who have been consistently ahead in most surveys since spring 2022.

The last time the Liberals came out on top in a major poll (by two points) was in May 2023, approaching two years ago.

According to the most recent poll from Nanos, taken on Jan. 3, jobs and the economy are the two most important issues for voters, followed by inflation, healthcare and housing.

The Research Co. poll, meanwhile, found that housing, homelessness and poverty are the top issues, followed by the economy, jobs and health care.

That survey, taken between Jan. 3 and Jan. 5, also found that the Tories are polling at over 50 per cent in Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, British Columbia and Ontario. In Quebec, they are second to the Bloc.

Both the Ipsos and Pallas surveys were conducted in the aftermath of Justin Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation on Monday.

The poll found that the vast majority of those surveyed – 86 per cent – believe the Liberals “will struggle to win the next election” despite Trudeau’s decision.

It also found that 81 per cent of respondents approved of the prime minister’s decision to call it a day.

The Pallas survey found much the same, but with slightly better prospects for the Liberals.

“There is life for the Liberals as they enter their post-Trudeau phase,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Things were looking bad for the Liberals at the end of 2024 with them facing the prospects of being reduced to 15 to 20 seats.”

But he added: “Now, with Justin Trudeau saying that he will resign, the gap between the Liberals has narrowed a bit, and while the Conservatives would still win a majority with these numbers, I would expect the Liberals to form the Official Opposition if an election were held today.”

Thumbnail photo credit: Justin Trudeau/Pierre Poilievre/X