Average Canadian family will pay $700 more for groceries next year, report predicts

The average family will pay $700 more for groceries next year, according to a new study.

Canada’s Food Price Report predicts food inflation of between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent in 2024, adding $701.79 to the annual grocery bill of an average family of four.

That will bring the average yearly food expenditure up to $16,297.20.

In 2023, that average was thought to be $15,595.41, an annual increase of 5.9 per cent.

In 2022, that figure was $15,222.81.

The report, which is published annually by researchers from UBC and three other Canadian universities, was broadly accurate in its prediction of food inflation in 2023.

“The estimated increase of 2.5-4.5 per cent for 2024 provides customers with much-needed relief from the higher increases observed in previous years,” said Stuart Smyth from the University of Saskatchewan.

“They should expect to see a degree of stability return to food prices. I am optimistic that the phrase ‘sticker-shock’ will become less commonly used throughout grocery stores in 2024.”

The researchers even said there could be a “mild deflationary trend” in grocery prices next year, meaning “lower prices for numerous essential food items.”

Some products, however, are still likely to cause plenty of shocks, with the report predicting increases of between five and seven per cent in meat, vegetables and bakery items.

“The year 2023 posed significant financial challenges for Canadian families, one of the toughest in recent memory,” Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, a professor at Dalhousie University, said.

According to Food Banks Canada, there have been nearly two million visits to food banks this year, the highest level ever recorded and a 78.5 per cent increase on March 2019’s figures.

A poll from the Angus Reid Institute released last week found that 54 per cent of respondents are finding it hard to feed their families.

Earlier this year, meanwhile, a food bank executive in British Columbia said parents are “skipping meals so that their children can eat.”

A study released by Statistics Canada last month found that one in seven Canadian households are choosing between food and heating.

According to the food price report – which was released today – Canadians are actually spending less on food this year compared with 2022-23.

“Food retail sales data indicates a decline in monthly spend per capita between August 2022 and August 2023 (from $261.24 to $252.89),” the report explains.

“Estimated annual spending for a family of four in the past year was $693 lower than originally projected. However, this decrease is a concern to researchers.

“Reduced expenditures in the face of elevated food prices indicates Canadians are decreasing the quantity and quality of food they are buying. “

The report’s authors also said “it is currently unclear” whether Bill C-56, which is designed to increase competition in the grocery sector, will succeed in improving affordability in the market.

The full report can be accessed here.